RSI on VWAP Upgraded strategyFirst of all, the idea of apply RSI to VWAP was inspired by XaviZ; at least, that where I first saw that.
I simply applied the idea and searched for apply this on lower timeframe (M15) to increase the number of positions and improve the profit factor.
The conditions to enter are the same :
long : enter on RSI crossover oversold level
short : enter on RSI crossunder oversell level
To close position, I found a little change to apply :
long : close position when RSI(VWAP) went in overbought zone and crossunder the overbought level OR after being at least x bars in the overbought zone (parameter is 28 by default) => when the first condition happens
short : close position when RSI(VWAP) went in oversold zone and crossover the oversold level OR after being at least x bars in the oversell zone (parameter is 28 by default) => when the first condition happens
With this change, I got better results specially on BTCUSDTPERP (M15) where I reach a 6.8 profit factor with 119 trades closed. Not BAD !
The defaults parameters are the best found for BTCUSDTPERP (M15), but the strategy works fine for other pairs if you take time to find the rights combinations.
In this strategy you can change (with defaults in () ):
RSI length (28)
RSI overbought level (85)
RSI oversell level (30)
Number of bars before leaving as explain above (28)
The choice to take longs only, shorts only or both
The number of coin/token by position
The start date for backtesting
Please note that the script use a pyramiding parameter of 3 (can be changed in the first line of the script); that means that you can take up to 3 positions before closing. It lets you improve average enter price but increase the risk. 3 is the best I found to improve profit factor without expose myself too much.
This script would be better if automated because of the conditions of buy and sell.
It's only for educative purpose, not an advice to invest.
All my free scripts here : fr.tradingview.com
Leave a message and don't forget to follow me ;) !
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Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Fractal Chaos Bands This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Stock market moves in a highly chaotic way, but at a larger scale, the movements
follow a certain pattern that can be applied to shorter or longer periods of time
and we can use Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator to identify those patterns. Basically,
the Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator helps us to identify whether the stock market is
trending or not. When a market is trending, the bands will have a slope and if market
is not trending the bands will flatten out. As the slope of the bands decreases, it
signifies that the market is choppy, insecure and variable. As the graph becomes more
and more abrupt, be it going up or down, the significance is that the market becomes
trendy, or stable. Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator is used similarly to other bands-indicator
(Bollinger bands for instance), offering trading opportunities when price moves above or
under the fractal lines.
The FCB indicator looks back in time depending on the number of time periods trader selected
to plot the indicator. The upper fractal line is made by plotting stock price highs and the
lower fractal line is made by plotting stock price lows. Essentially, the Fractal Chaos Bands
show an overall panorama of the price movement, as they filter out the insignificant fluctuations
of the stock price.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Fractal Chaos Bands This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Stock market moves in a highly chaotic way, but at a larger scale, the movements
follow a certain pattern that can be applied to shorter or longer periods of time
and we can use Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator to identify those patterns. Basically,
the Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator helps us to identify whether the stock market is
trending or not. When a market is trending, the bands will have a slope and if market
is not trending the bands will flatten out. As the slope of the bands decreases, it
signifies that the market is choppy, insecure and variable. As the graph becomes more
and more abrupt, be it going up or down, the significance is that the market becomes
trendy, or stable. Fractal Chaos Bands Indicator is used similarly to other bands-indicator
(Bollinger bands for instance), offering trading opportunities when price moves above or
under the fractal lines.
The FCB indicator looks back in time depending on the number of time periods trader selected
to plot the indicator. The upper fractal line is made by plotting stock price highs and the
lower fractal line is made by plotting stock price lows. Essentially, the Fractal Chaos Bands
show an overall panorama of the price movement, as they filter out the insignificant fluctuations
of the stock price.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Golden Cross Optimised For Reversal (by Coinrule)A moving average crossing is a common and widely adopted trading strategy. A short-term MA crossing above a long-term one provides the buy-signal. The opposite generates a sell-signal for the strategy.
Although very popular, this strategy has some limitations that lead to frequent "false signals" and only a few very profitable trades. If the strategy provides two many trades, that generates
the risk for more potential losses
more transaction fees paid
capital allocated to the strategy, thus the impossibility of catching other potential opportunities.
Applying an additional filter to the strategy, consisting of the crossing happening below a longer-term moving average, allows increasing the chances of catching the first crossing signaling a reversal.
The indicator is set to work with three moving averages.
Buy signal: The MA(9) to cross above the MA(50), which must be below the MA(100)
Sell Signal: The MA(9) to cross below the MA(50)
This indicator works significantly better on lower time frames, where it can reduce the noise of getting too many non-profitable signals from a conventional crossing strategy.
The indicator has been backtested mostly on cryptocurrencies.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Floor Pivot Points This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The name ‘Floor-Trader Pivot,’ came from the fact that Pivot points can
be calculated quickly, on the fly using price data from the previous day
as an input. Although time-frames of less than a day can be used, Pivots are
commonly plotted on the Daily Chart; using price data from the previous day’s
trading activity.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Floor Pivot Points This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The name ‘Floor-Trader Pivot,’ came from the fact that Pivot points can
be calculated quickly, on the fly using price data from the previous day
as an input. Although time-frames of less than a day can be used, Pivots are
commonly plotted on the Daily Chart; using price data from the previous day’s
trading activity.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Future Lines of Demarcation This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
An FLD is a line that is plotted on the same scale as the price and is in fact the
price itself displaced to the right (into the future) by (approximately) half the
wavelength of the cycle for which the FLD is plotted. There are three FLD's that can be
plotted for each cycle:
An FLD based on the median price.
An FLD based on the high price.
An FLD based on the low price.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Future Lines of Demarcation This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
An FLD is a line that is plotted on the same scale as the price and is in fact the
price itself displaced to the right (into the future) by (approximately) half the
wavelength of the cycle for which the FLD is plotted. There are three FLD's that can be
plotted for each cycle:
An FLD based on the median price.
An FLD based on the high price.
An FLD based on the low price.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Fisher Transform Indicator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Market prices do not have a Gaussian probability density function
as many traders think. Their probability curve is not bell-shaped.
But trader can create a nearly Gaussian PDF for prices by normalizing
them or creating a normalized indicator such as the relative strength
index and applying the Fisher transform. Such a transformed output
creates the peak swings as relatively rare events.
Fisher transform formula is: y = 0.5 * ln ((1+x)/(1-x))
The sharp turning points of these peak swings clearly and unambiguously
identify price reversals in a timely manner.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Fisher Transform Indicator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Market prices do not have a Gaussian probability density function
as many traders think. Their probability curve is not bell-shaped.
But trader can create a nearly Gaussian PDF for prices by normalizing
them or creating a normalized indicator such as the relative strength
index and applying the Fisher transform. Such a transformed output
creates the peak swings as relatively rare events.
Fisher transform formula is: y = 0.5 * ln ((1+x)/(1-x))
The sharp turning points of these peak swings clearly and unambiguously
identify price reversals in a timely manner.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Finite Volume Elements (FVE) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The FVE is a pure volume indicator. Unlike most of the other indicators
(except OBV), price change doesn?t come into the equation for the FVE (price
is not multiplied by volume), but is only used to determine whether money is
flowing in or out of the stock. This is contrary to the current trend in the
design of modern money flow indicators. The author decided against a price-volume
indicator for the following reasons:
- A pure volume indicator has more power to contradict.
- The number of buyers or sellers (which is assessed by volume) will be the same,
regardless of the price fluctuation.
- Price-volume indicators tend to spike excessively at breakouts or breakdowns.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Finite Volume Elements (FVE) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The FVE is a pure volume indicator. Unlike most of the other indicators
(except OBV), price change doesn`t come into the equation for the FVE (price
is not multiplied by volume), but is only used to determine whether money is
flowing in or out of the stock. This is contrary to the current trend in the
design of modern money flow indicators. The author decided against a price-volume
indicator for the following reasons:
- A pure volume indicator has more power to contradict.
- The number of buyers or sellers (which is assessed by volume) will be the same,
regardless of the price fluctuation.
- Price-volume indicators tend to spike excessively at breakouts or breakdowns.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Extracting The Trend This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Extracting The Trend
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Extracting The Trend This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Extracting The Trend
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic TSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
r - Length of first EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 4
s - Length of second EMA smoothing of 1 day smoothing 8
u- Length of third EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 6
Length of EMA signal line 3
Source of Ergotic TSI Close
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic TSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
r - Length of first EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 4
s - Length of second EMA smoothing of 1 day smoothing 8
u- Length of third EMA smoothing of 1 day momentum 6
Length of EMA signal line 3
Source of Ergotic TSI Close
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic MDI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic MDI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book "Momentum,
Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more, we advise you to
read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects of trading: momentum,
direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical engineer before becoming
a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between price and momentum in
step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks at the deficiencies
in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques, including a
fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the intricacies
of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and non-trending periods.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic MACD This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship
between price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding,
he then looks at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some
innovative techniques, including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional
issues, he analyzes the intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help
define trending and non-trending periods.
Blau`s indicator is like usual MACD, but it plots opposite of meaningof
stndard MACD indicator.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic MACD This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship
between price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding,
he then looks at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some
innovative techniques, including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional
issues, he analyzes the intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help
define trending and non-trending periods.
Blau`s indicator is like usual MACD, but it plots opposite of meaningof
stndard MACD indicator.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Grid Like StrategyIt is possible to use progressive position sizing in order to recover from past losses, a well-known position sizing system being the "martingale", which consists of doubling your position size after a loss, this allows you to recover any previous losses in a losing streak + winning an extra. This system has seen a lot of attention from the trading community (mostly from beginners), and many strategies have been designed around the martingale, one of them being "grid trading strategies".
While such strategies often shows promising results on paper, they are often subjects to many frictions during live trading that makes them totally unusable and dangerous to the trader. The motivations behind posting such a strategy isn't to glorify such systems, but rather to present the problems behind them, many users come to me with their ideas and glorious ways to make money, sometimes they present strategies using the martingale, and it is important to present the flaws of this methodology rather than blindly saying "you shouldn't use it".
Strategy Settings
Point determines the "grid" size and should be adjusted accordingly to the scale of the symbol you are applying the strategy to. Higher value would require larger price movements in order to trigger a trade, as such higher values will generate fewer trades.
The order size determines the number of contracts/shares to purchase.
The martingale multiplier determines the factor by which the position size is multiplied after a loss, using values higher to 2 will "squarify" your balance, while a value of 1 would use a constant position sizing.
Finally, the anti-martingale parameter determines whether the strategy uses a reverse martingale or not, if set to true then the position size is multiplied after any wins.
The Grid
Grid strategies are commons and do not present huge problems until we use certain position sizing methods such as the martingale. A martingale is extremely sensitive to any kind of friction (frictional costs, slippage...etc), the grid strategy aims to provide a stable and simple environment where a martingale might possibly behave well.
The goal of a simple grid strategy is to go long once the price crossover a certain level, a take profit is set at the level above the current one and stop loss is placed at the level below the current one, in a winning scenario the price reach the take profit, the position is closed and a new one is opened with the same setup. In a losing scenario, the price reaches the stop loss level, the position is closed and a short one is opened, the take profit is set at the level below the current one, and a stop loss is set at the level above the current one. Note that all levels are equally spaced.
It follows from this strategy that wins and losses should be constant over time, as such our balance would evolve in a linear fashion. This is a great setup for a martingale, as we are theoretically assured to recover all the looses in a losing streak.
Martingale - Exponential Decays - Risk/Reward
By using a martingale we double our position size (exposure) each time we lose a trade, if we look at our balance when using a martingale we see significant drawdowns, with our balance peaking down significantly. The martingale sequence is subject to exponential growth, as such using a martingale makes our balance exposed to exponential decays, that's really bad, we could basically lose all the initially invested capital in a short amount of time, it follows from this that the theoretical success of a martingale is determined by what is the maximum losing streak you can endure
Now consider how a martingale affects our risk-reward ratio, assuming unity position sizing our martingale sequence can be described by 2^(x-1) , using this formula we would get the amount of shares/contracts we need to purchase at the x trade of a losing streak, we would need to purchase 256 contracts in order to recover from a losing streak of size 9, this is enormous when you take into account that your wins are way smaller, the risk-reward ratio is totally unfair.
Of course, some users might think that a losing streak of size 9 is pretty unlikely, if the probability of winning and losing are both equal to 0.5, then the probability of 9 consecutive losses is equal to 0.5^9 , there are approximately 0.2% of chance of having such large losing streak, note however that under a ranging market such case scenario could happen, but we will see later that the length of a losing streak is not the only problem.
Other Problems
Having a capital large enough to tank 9any number of consecutive losses is not the only thing one should focus on, as we have to take into account market prices and trading dynamics, that's where the ugly part start.
Our first problem is frictional costs, one example being the spread, but this is a common problem for any strategy, however here a martingale is extra sensitive to it, if the strategy does not account for it then we will still double our positions costs but we might not recover all the losses of a losing streak, instead we would be recovering only a proportion of it, under such scenario you would be certain to lose over time.
Another problem are gaps, market price might open under a stop-loss without triggering it, and this is a big no-no.
Equity of the strategy on AMD, in a desired scenario the equity at the second arrow should have been at a higher position than the equity at the first arrow.
In order for the strategy to be more effective, we would need to trade a market that does not close, such as the cryptocurrency market. Finally, we might be affected by slippage, altho only extreme values might drastically affect our balance.
The Anti Martingale
The strategy lets you use an anti-martingale, which double the position size after a win instead of a loss, the goal here is not to recover from a losing strike but instead to profit from a potential winning streak.
Here we are exposing your balance to exponential gross but you might also lose a trade at the end a winning streak, you will generally want to reinitialize your position size after a few wins instead of waiting for the end of a streak.
Alternative
You can use other-kind of progressions for position sizing, such as a linear one, increasing your position size by a constant number each time you lose. More gentle progressions will recover a proportion of your losses in a losing streak.
You can also simulate the effect of a martingale without doubling your position size by doubling your target profit, if for example you have a 10$ profit-target/stop-loss and lose a trade, you can use a 20$ profit target to recover from the lost trade + gain a profit of 10$. While this approach does not introduce exponential decay in your balance, you are betting on the market reaching your take profits, considering the fact that you are doubling their size you are expecting market volatility to increase drastically over time, as such this approach would not be extremely effective for high losing streak.
Conclusion
You will see a lot of auto-trading strategies that are based on a grid approach, they might even use a martingale. While the backtests will look appealing, you should think twice before using such kind of strategy, remember that frictional costs will be a huge challenge for the strategy, and that it assumes that the trader has an important initial capital. We have also seen that the risk/reward ratio is theoretically the worst you can have on a strategy, having a low reward and a high risk. This does not mean that progressive position sizing is bad, but it should not be pushed to the extreme.
It is nice to note that the martingale is originally a betting system designed for casino games, which unlike trading are not subject to frictional costs, but even casino players don't use it, so why would you?
Thx for reading
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Ergodic CSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between
price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks
at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques,
including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the
intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and
non-trending periods.
This indicator plots Ergotic CSI and smoothed Ergotic CSI to filter out noise.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Ergodic CSI This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
This is one of the techniques described by William Blau in his book
"Momentum, Direction and Divergence" (1995). If you like to learn more,
we advise you to read this book. His book focuses on three key aspects
of trading: momentum, direction and divergence. Blau, who was an electrical
engineer before becoming a trader, thoroughly examines the relationship between
price and momentum in step-by-step examples. From this grounding, he then looks
at the deficiencies in other oscillators and introduces some innovative techniques,
including a fresh twist on Stochastics. On directional issues, he analyzes the
intricacies of ADX and offers a unique approach to help define trending and
non-trending periods.
This indicator plots Ergotic CSI and smoothed Ergotic CSI to filter out noise.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
